San Diego Home Prices, Mortgage Rates & the Ongoing Iran Conflict's Impact

January Snapshot: Median Sale Prices, San Diego County (SFR, Condo & Townhouse)

The median sale price across single-family, condominium, and townhouse properties rose from $645,000 in January 2021 to $900,000 in January 2026 — a 39.5% increase over five years, per San Diego Association InfoSparks (CRMLS). Growth wasn't perfectly linear: prices dipped slightly in 2023 before resuming their climb. Note that the January 2026 figure predates this year's Iran conflict and the mortgage rate run-up that followed — it's a start-of-year benchmark, not a mid-year or current reading.

Mortgage Rate History: 2021 to 2026

When mortgage rates rise, price growth stalls. When rates fall, prices surge. This is more pronounced in San Diego than most markets because local supply cannot expand — the county is bounded by ocean, mountains, Mexico, and Camp Pendleton.

Days on Market & Months Supply: January Reading, 2021 to 2026

Days active in MLS held near 8 days in January 2021 and 2022, then rose unevenly — jumping to 23 days in January 2023, easing back to 16 in January 2024, then climbing to roughly 26 days by January 2026. Months supply has climbed more steadily, from a tight 0.8–1.2 months in January 2021–2022 to roughly 2.5 months as of January 2026 — still under the 3-month seller's-market threshold. As with the price data above, these are January snapshots and predate this year's rate run-up; conditions may have shifted further by mid-to-late 2026.

Source: San Diego Association InfoSparks (CRMLS), crmls.stats.10kresearch.com. Residential: Single Family, Condominium & Townhouse. Each year is a January snapshot, not an annual average.

Comprehensive Market Data Table

Price, days active in MLS, and months supply: San Diego Association InfoSparks (CRMLS), crmls.stats.10kresearch.com, Residential: Single Family, Condominium & Townhouse — January reading each year. 30-year rate: Freddie Mac PMMS, January reading each year. Note: by August 2026 the 30-year rate had climbed to 6.69% — well above the 5.98% January reading shown here — so current affordability is tighter than this table's January snapshot alone would suggest. See the rate section below for the full 2026 trajectory.

The Federal Reserve Rate Path: From 5.5% Peak to a Divided Hold

The Fed raised its benchmark rate from near zero in 2022 to a peak of 5.25%–5.50% by mid-2023. After holding for over a year, the FOMC cut rates by a total of 175 basis points in late 2024. The target of 3.50%–3.75% has been held steady since December 2025. An unusual 8–4 vote at the April 29, 2026 meeting — Jerome Powell's final meeting as chair, with four members dissenting for a cut or a change in guidance — revealed deep internal disagreement. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has since presided over an even more divided committee: at the July 29, 2026 meeting, the vote flipped to 9–3, with three hawkish members dissenting in favor of a rate hike, citing inflation risk tied to the ongoing Iran conflict. That reversal — from doves pushing for cuts in April to hawks pushing for a hike in July — is a strong signal that near-term rate relief is not on the table.

The 10-Year Treasury Yield: The Real Mortgage Driver

Mortgage rates do not directly follow the Fed funds rate — they follow the 10-year Treasury yield. Throughout 2026 this distinction has been critically important: even as the Fed held its benchmark roughly steady, the 10-year yield has stayed elevated as bond markets price in ongoing Iran-conflict-driven inflation risk, keeping mortgage rates well above where Fed policy alone would suggest.

30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates in 2026: An Unresolved Conflict's Fingerprint

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate entered 2026 at 5.98% — the lowest since 2022. That window closed when the Iran conflict erupted in late February. Rates climbed through the spring, an April ceasefire briefly eased pressure, but renewed fighting in July pushed rates higher still. As of August 6, 2026, the 30-year fixed rate stands at 6.69% per Freddie Mac PMMS — the highest level in about a year — adding roughly $330 per month to the payment on a $900K San Diego home compared to January's low.

Quantified Impact on San Diego Buyers

Timeline: From Spring Breakout to a Ceasefire That Didn't Hold

Monthly Payment at Key Rate Scenarios: $900K San Diego Home

On a $900,000 home with 20% down ($720,000 loan) — San Diego County's January 2026 median across single-family, condo, and townhouse properties — here is what your monthly principal and interest payment looks like at four rate scenarios — from a hypothetical rate-relief case to today's one-year-high rate. (Note: since January, mortgage rates have risen substantially, and if prices have moved since then too, actual affordability today may differ from this baseline.)

Rate vs. Price: Which Costs You More?

A 1-point rate drop (6.69% to 5.69%) on a $720K loan would save roughly $465 per month — and that savings could be captured later through refinancing, if and when rates actually fall. A 10% price increase while waiting (to $990,000) costs roughly $465 per month permanently. The math on refinancing later vs. paying more for the same home holds regardless of timing, but given that rates have moved higher rather than lower for most of 2026, buyers should not treat a rate drop as a near-term certainty.